I’m sorry to tell you that I will not be flying during this year’s thaw. The company has no clients actively flying or likely to book trips in the next several weeks, so temporary layoff notices have been sent out. I do not expect to fly again until summer. Training flights have been cancelled. We have one crew available in case something comes up.
I could try to do a post once a week or so, with satellite imagery and graphs, but I won’t be able to observe or comment on the stage by stage developments on the lake.
On the bright side, the spring will come whether I document it or not. The Canada geese are back now, and the hardy goldeneye ducks have been around for weeks.
Sean sent me a couple of graphs the other day. Now seems like a good time to put them up.
On this graph, cold temperatures drive the winter spikes downward, so that a long cold winter has a deeper and wider profile than a mild one. Last winter, looking unfinished at the right side of the graph, seems to be one of the milder ones. Sean uses this data to guess at the overall ice thickness. Then, once our temperatures are above freezing, he makes an estimate of how many warm days it will take to melt it all.
Each winter gets its own coloured line, tracking a simple points system: each day, the mean daily temperature moves the line down that much. If the daily mean temp is -10ºC, the line drops ten points. This year is the fat dashed line, and if temperatures level off the way Sean extrapolated, we can see that recently there have been six longer, colder winters, and just three milder ones.
That’s all for now. Stay well.